All-Moscow seminar "Mathematical methods of decision analysis in economics, finance and politics"

On Wednesday, March 17, the National Research University Higher School of Economics hosted a regular meeting of the All-Moscow seminar "Mathematical methods for analyzing optimal solutions in economics, business and politics".

Topic: "Influence of subjective beliefs about success on decision-making in the face of risk"
Speakers: Sofia Dolgikh (HSE University)
Seminar leaders:
Doctor of Technical Sciences, prof. Aleskerov Fuad Tagievich
Doctor of Technical Sciences, prof. Podinovsky Vladislav Vladimirovich
Doctor of Technical Sciences, prof. Mirkin Boris Grigorievich

Annotation:
The paper proposes a model of the theory of decision-making under risk conditions, which explains the phenomenon of the dynamics of preferences from the point of view of subjective probabilities. As a mechanism to take into account the dynamics of subjective probabilities, individual representations of luck are considered. On the one hand, an individual's belief in his own luck can determine the subjective perception of probability, which is consistent with theories of subjective expected utility and allows one to explain the deviations of real behavior from the predictions of the theory of expected utility in statics. On the other hand, by observing the results of earlier decisions, an individual can adapt his ideas at the level of his luck and re-evaluate the corresponding probabilities of outcomes. The proposed mechanism is analyzed using simulated and real data from the Russian, American and Dutch versions of TV show "Deal or no Deal". The analysis provided evidence that subjective beliefs about luck can be considered a factor in determining the role of subjective probabilities. Also, evidence has been obtained in favor of the possible dynamic nature of the concept of luck.