Modeling of Inflation Processes in Uzbekistan Based On the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

The paper presents the results of empirical evaluation various kinds of new Keynesian Phillips curves for modeling dynamics of inflation in Uzbekistan. In particular, were evaluated " standard» the shape of the new Keynesian Phillips curve, its modification for small open economy, as well as a hybrid form of this curve, which along with rational (forward-looking)) inflation expectations also takes into account the adaptive (backward-looking) inflation expectations. According to the results of estimation of new Keynesian Phillips curves the degree of influence of the looking inflation expectations and deviations of average marginal production costs from the equilibrium level of inflation in Uzbekistan, identified additional macroeconomic factors of inflation, and calculated the degree of the relevance of inflation expectations in relation to inflation and its comparison with the degree of influence on inflation of forward-looking inflation expectations. The results of the study can be applied to improve the effectiveness of the development and implementation of monetary policy in In the framework of the inflation targeting regime. Also given the study can serve as a basis for the following modeling of economic processes in the framework of the new Keynesian theory both in Uzbekistan and in other transition countries economy.