Simulation of a Trend of an Innovation Technology Using Textual Data

The information about how a technology developed over time is relevant for those who make decisions in the area of innovation investments or directly involved in development. Technology Life Cycle (TLC) modeling provides a tool which allows to depict how cumulative expenditures on R&D depends on time (both financial and human resources) on a diagram. This paper suggests an approach for technology life cycle modeling based on patent documents from US Patent & Trademark Office, which combines two methods – quantitative analysis of patent indicators and contents analysis of texts. Output is assessed, based on two test technologies one of those had already completed its’ life cycle and is obsolete – is VHS, and a technology which had already passed multiple turns of life cycle – is Telephone. The obtained life cycle diagrams of test technologies are checked for compliance with the facts in the historical development of these technologies.