DSGE Modeling as a Tool for Scenario Forecasting of Indicators of the National Economy

Student: Minaeva Oksana

Supervisor: Andrey G. Shulgin

Educational Programme: Economics (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2020

The DSGE model used in this work is a modified version of the model of a small open economy. Model parameter calibration produced according to Russian quarterly statistics. Unsteady time series of data were eliminated cyclical and trend components. In the package Dynare (MATLAB) has written a program that implements various shock impact scenarios with two monetary policy instruments (interest rate rule, money supply growth rule). The minimum value of the household welfare loss function corresponds to a general factor shock performance using the interest rate rule.

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