The Effect of Economic Shocks on Peasant Uprisings: Evidence from the Russian Empire

In authoritarian agrarian countries, there was always a risk of peasant unrest, and the Russian Empire at the turn of the XIX-XX centuries was no exception. I am researching whether economic shocks can explain the frequency of uprisings and its geographical variation. This question has not yet been studied much in the literature, so I have concentrated on it. This paper uses data on crop yields, uprisings, weather and various indicators of 49 western provinces of the Russian Empire for 15 years from 1900 to 1914. As a result, a significant negative relationship was found between yield shocks and the number of uprisings per capita in rural areas. It was also investigated how the characteristics of the province affect the strength of the effect. It was higher in regions that are more dependent on agriculture. This can be explained by the fact that the yield shocks had more severe consequences for them. Areas with strong communes were also more sensitive to falling agricultural productivity. The result may be related to their relative backwardness caused by this institute.