The Accuracy of CFO Predictions about Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators

Student: shiriaeva daria

Supervisor: Oleg Shibanov

Educational Programme: Joint HSE-NES Undergraduate Program in Economics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 7

Year of Graduation: 2022

This paper examines data from a survey of CFOs of various firms in the United States of America about their forecasts about the state of the country's economy and their company, in particular. Using data from forecasts of changes in the number of employees in the firm, the price level of the company, and the returns of the S&P 500 index, I check how accurate their forecasts are. In my work, I come to the conclusion that economists' forecasts are weak predictors of macroeconomic and financial indicators, but their uncertainty about the future can be a useful factor in predicting GDP growth.

Full text (added June 3, 2022)

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