Factors Influencing the Research Success of School Graduates

In this article we analyze the issue of predicting the career choice of students at a selective University based on their results of participation in various Olympiads during their school years. On the one hand, the main method of admission for applicants to such selective Universities as MIPT is successful participation in highly rated school competitions, but on the other hand, only 30% of those admitted subsequently choose a research career, although the training of research scientists is the key task for such Universities. Using regression analysis methods, the strength of the relationship between the results of participation in competitions before entering a University and the choice of a research track by a student was assessed. The sample consisted of 6086 students who were admitted to budget places for the 1st year of MIPT in the period from 2014 to 2020. The results in the Olympiads were used as input data, and the entire range of Olympiads was divided into two groups: “engineering” and “theoretical”, and the results were ranked on a nine-point scale. The criteria for choosing a research track were participation in conferences or the availability of articles in scientific journals. It has been established that participation in “engineering” Olympiads does not guarantee the choice of a research track and does not affect the number of publications or participation in conferences. With regard to participation in “theoretical” competitions, some association may be indicated, but it appears to be too weak and unstable to draw conclusions about a direct effect. This research specifies the current understanding of the career choice of students who have been winners of Olympiads in the past, and leads to the need to adjust the conditions for admission to selective Universities, giving the opportunity to applicants who have not proven themselves at a high level in Olympiads, but who have internal motivation for research activities, to have the opportunity to go to such Universities.