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The Influence of Brexit on the Evolution of Spain's Approach towards the Status of Gibraltar (2014-2022)

Student: Aida Bagirova

Supervisor: Andrei Skriba

Faculty: Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs

Educational Programme: International Relations and Global Studies (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 8

Year of Graduation: 2024

This work was related to the topic of Gibraltar, namely the influence of Brexit into Spanish foreign policy regarding this territory from 2014 to 2022. The objectives of the work were generally to trace the evolution of the Spanish approach. Smaller goals included identifying the significance of Gibraltar for Spain in a historical context, also tracing the impact of Brexit and shifts in Spanish policy, and then analyzing Spain's post-Brexit approach. This was done using sentiment analysis. It was made through the analysis of the tonality of both the speeches of politicians and through reading the programs of political parties. Findings show that indeed at pre-Brexit era, the statements were rather negative, but in Brexit and Post-Brexit era positive statements prevailed. Content analysis was the second method used, it focused on a detailed study of the frequency of positive and negative words in the electoral programs of Partido Popular and Partido Socialista Obrero Español. This showed the fact that, depending on the period of government of a certain party, the applied policy regarding Gibraltar changed. For example, the PP party was more attuned to the idea of joint sovereignty, while the PSOE party attached importance to cooperation and negotiation. The theoretical framework of the two-level game by Putnam was also applied. It brought great novelty, since initially this issue was studied in academic discourse through the theory of international relations, and this theory of FPA allowed us to open the black box of IR, and look inside the state, that is, at the domestic level. All of the above methodological parts helped confirm the hypothesis that the Spanish foreign policy related to Gibraltar's status in the pre-Brexit era and during the beggining of process was hardline and aimed to achieve the needed level of partial sovereignty, where in the post-Brexit period started to tend to more cooperation.

Full text (added April 29, 2024)

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