Factors of Russia's Foreign Policy towards Belarus in 2012 - 2020

Objective: The research aims to comprehensively explore the multifaceted relations between Belarus and Russia through identifying key events and patterns, investigating historical context, assessing economic interdependencies, and examining political dynamics. Moreover, the study analyzes security concerns, including military collaborations and regional stability, to assess their impact on the bilateral ties and examines domestic factors. Lastly, it attempts to offer insights and recommendations based on the analysis to guide future academic and policy-making endeavors related to Russo-Belarusian relations. Methodology: the methodology section details the use of case-study analysis, a prominent qualitative approach in international relations, to conduct a thorough and critical examination of theoretical underpinnings, particularly contemporary realism in this field. The case study chosen for this research is the complex interaction between Belarus and Russia. This relationship provides a detailed and unique scenario for investigation due to its intricate alliance dynamics, which are expected to offer valuable insights and substantial inferential leverage for theoretical critique. Additionally, the research will include a Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) analysis, with further methodological specifics to be elaborated in a dedicated subsection. Conclusions: This thesis provides an in-depth analysis of Russian foreign policy towards Belarus from 2012 to 2020, emphasizing the multifaceted influences such as geopolitical strategies, historical connections, economic interdependencies, and security concerns. The study reveals that Russia’s foreign policy is not only shaped by immediate political needs but also by deep historical ties and strategic calculations. It demonstrates how Russia's policy is intricately linked with Belarus, responding to its actions and political stance. The research integrates empirical findings with theoretical insights from neorealism and neoclassical realism, offering nuanced perspectives on how domestic politics and international pressures interact in shaping foreign policy. This work contributes to international relations by advocating for analytical frameworks that address the complex nature of state behaviors, especially in asymmetric power dynamics. Significance: the findings underscore the need for adaptive policy frameworks that consider historical and current geopolitical realities. The thesis highlights the significant impact of smaller states like Belarus on the policies of more powerful nations such as Russia, shaping broader regional and international dynamics. However, the study cautions against generalizing its findings beyond the specific case of Russia and Belarus. It calls for further research into the realist patron-client theory to understand its applicability to other contexts and relationships, like Russia's interactions with other states such as Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. Ultimately, the thesis aims to enhance the understanding of great power-small power relations and encourages future studies to explore the causal mechanisms of realist patron-client theory in other major international relationships. Keywords: Russia, Belarus, Russian Foreign Policy, International Relations