Construction of a Specialized Scoring Model that Determines the High Reliability of Service Companies Based on Second-order Accuracy Metrics.

In 2023, the investment activity of individuals and entities increased in Russia. According to the Central Bank, the number of clients of the Moscow Exchange grew in each quarter of 2023, as well as the volume of assets managed by companies engaged in the management of shares and other assets. With the increasing number of individuals willing to invest their funds, the key interest in the reliability of management companies is significantly increasing. The development of a specialized scoring tool for management companies that guarantees the reliability of a limited subclass of super reliable management companies is becoming extremely important. However, there are few scientific and practical studies focused on models with a certain preference, so the purpose of this work is to fill this gap by developing a scoring model that identifies the most stable management companies, that is, companies with the least probability of bankruptcy on the horizon of two years. The creation of this tool is based on second-order accuracy metrics that show the quality of the model with a right-hand preference. To achieve this goal, a review of the fundamental and modern literature on the topic was conducted, an analysis of the predictive power of financial and other indicators of companies in determining bankruptcy cases was carried out. The best indicators were included in the final model, the weights of which were optimized by maximizing the right-hand metrics of the second order. The result of this work will help to ensure effective protection of the interests of potential investors, will allow them to make decisions based on an objective assessment of management companies. Other positive effects of using the model will be improved transparency and trust in financial markets, the development of the investment environment, as well as increased competition among management companies, encouraging them to improve the quality of services and raise standards of professionalism.