Comparative Analysis of Factors Influencing the Primary and Secondary Residential Real Estate Market in Moscow

This research aims to compare two residential real estate markets in Moscow, namely the primary and secondary markets, based on materials from domestic and international academic literature and leading real estate platforms. The research involves an analysis of existing sources, the development of regression models, and the creation of time series models that can forecast future market trends. The study collects data from the Cian platform on current advertisements for the sale of apartments in both the primary and secondary market, totaling 4,253 properties. This data is statistically analyzed using multiple regression techniques and assessed from the perspective of the impact of 22 variables on the price per square meter. Furthermore, a time series analysis covering the period from 2016 to 2023 is conducted to examine the influence of macroeconomic variables on price fluctuations in the market. Based on the findings, a final vector autoregressive (VAR) model predicts a mild upward trend in prices in both markets over time.In addition, the study examined the dependence of the volume of mortgage lending on a number of macroeconomic factors such as the exchange rate, interest rates, average term of mortgages, etc. over the period from 2019 to 2023. A forecast was generated for the next eight periods based on the ARIMA model that was constructed. We also examined previous studies on housing affordability indicators for citizens and calculated several of them for the Moscow region and several of the most significant territories of Russia over the 2019–2023 period. At the same time, data for Moscow was analyzed according to the official subdivision of the city into administrative districts. The findings can be utilized by real estate market actors as an analysis of the present situation in two residential real estate markets, assisting in making various decisions and serving as a foundation for further research on this subject.