Analysis of the Dynamics of Leasing of Movable and Immovable Property in Germany

The work is devoted to studying the development of the leasing market in Germany and the influence of macroeconomic factors on it. The purpose of the thesis is to analyze the structure and dynamics of leasing of movable and immovable property in Germany to identify the main trends and factors shaping the market. The practical significance of the final qualifying work is the possibility of using the results of the work by enterprises and organizations engaged in leasing activities to optimize their strategic planning and risk management in the event of entering the German leasing market. To conduct the empirical analysis, three samples were used, including data on the cost of new leasing agreements for movable and immovable property and general data on all new leasing agreements. All three samples were analyzed for the presence of structural breaks and nonstationarity of the series, after which ARIMA models were built to predict trends in the amount of concluded leasing agreements in Germany, including adding a time series and taking into account the structural break to confirm the hypothesis that adding lagged values new leasing transactions for the previous period and lagged error values significantly improves the predictive quality of leasing modeling in Germany. The model for assessing the impact of macroeconomic factors on the German leasing market, in addition to the cost of new leasing contracts, includes factors such as GDP, refinancing rate, contract terms, number of vehicles per thousand people and investments in non-financial assets.