Forecasting Tax Revenues From Personal Income Tax to the Budget of the Russian Federation Using Econometric Models

Student: Gavrilova Anastasiia

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 8

Year of Graduation: 2024

The objective of this study is to develop an econometric analysis tool that allows forecasting personal income tax (PIT) revenues to the budget of the Russian Federation with the least errors and the greatest accuracy. Methods include naive forecast, ETS, ARIMA, SARIMA and ECM combined with SARIMA. The data used are data on personal income tax revenues for the period from 2004 to 2023. The results of this study can be used to forecast personal income tax to the Consolidated Budget of the Russian Federation and improve the accuracy of official forecasts.

Full text (added May 10, 2024)

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