Analysis of Junk Bonds Yield Spreads and Their Determinants in Conditions of Stability and Crises

In an era of global economic fluctuations and constantly changing market conditions, there is an increase in volatility in financial markets, especially in the context of high-yield bonds. These instruments tend to offer higher returns compared to standard corporate or government bonds, but at the same time involve increased credit risk. In recent years, under the influence of economic crises, political instability and changes in the monetary policy of the world's largest central banks, the dynamics of these high-yield bond yield spreads has become even more significant. This has led to a need for a deeper understanding of exactly how various factors affect spreads, which, in turn, is the key to effectively managing investment risks and maximizing portfolio returns. The purpose of this work was to study the formation of yield spreads in various periods and the state of the Russian economy. To do this, a number of factors were selected that characterize macroeconomic indicators, individual characteristics of issues and their impact was analyzed in different time periods. To achieve the goals of the work, 5 different time periods were analyzed and 5 samples were formed for analysis: primary placement of the VDO, secondary treatment of the VDO at the moment, treatment of the VDO in the "pre-shock" period, treatment of the VDO in the "shock" period, treatment of the VDO in the "post-shock" period. Thus, it was shown that during a time of stability in the market and in the economy, the financial performance of companies does not play a significant role in the formation of the spread, which suggests that in quiet times, investors are more guided by the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators when forming expectations for the required profitability. In turn, it was revealed that during the shock period, the role of financial indicators of companies begins to play a significant role in forming expectations for the required profitability, as investors begin to assess the increased risks in the economy, which can significantly affect companies with an unstable financial situation. Thus, the results of this work can be used by investors, both private and fund managers, for better formation of investment decisions, analyzing the most relevant factors, depending on the state of the market and the economy of the country, and can also be used by issuers to work out the most optimal solutions for attracting financing through the segment of high-yield bonds.