Factors of Change in the Reproductive Intentions of Russian Citizens During the Period of Socio-Economic Shocks

The paper examines the changes in the reproductive intentions of Russians during the socio-economic shocks of 2022-2023, which arose during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Based on data from a representative survey conducted in May 2023, using binary and multiple choice econometric models, as well as machine learning methods, we identified the factors influencing changes in reproductive intentions. The econometric models included both objective characteristics of respondents (income level, housing conditions, health status, age and gender characteristics, family status and the presence of children) and subjective factors related to emotions (anxiety, fear, calmness, happiness) and attitude to events in the country. We have revealed that the most significant factors are subjective (they account for 60% of the explained variance of the probabilistic binary choice model): attitude to the country's political course, emotions (feelings of happiness, anxiety and fear), individual perception of the degree of one's own financial well-being and assessment of the significance of the federal maternity capital program. Anxiety and fear, as well as disagreement with the course of the state, encourage respondents to postpone the birth of children indefinitely. A positive emotional background and the presence of a partner, on the contrary, leads to an acceleration of births. The refusal to give birth to children is mainly due to physiological deadlines, as well as a negative attitude towards state policy. The results of the model calculations are consistent with a cluster analysis of the answers to an open question about the causes of changes in reproductive intentions and estimates of various machine learning algorithms. Using the Honest Trees method and Chow tests, heterogeneous treatement effects were identified for a number of factors.