Statistical Analysis of the Main Trends in the Russian Residential Real Estate Market, Taking Into Account Macroeconomic Factors

This study aims to conduct a statistical analysis of the main trends in the primary residential real estate market in the Russian Federation, in order to identify economic and social factors that affect the formation of prices and the volume of transactions. Data from various sources, such as SberIndex, the Central Bank, Rosstat, and the Federal State Statistics Service were used. Various statistical methods, including correlation analysis, regression analysis, panel data analysis, cluster analysis, and time series analysis, were used to analyze the data. A pricing model was constructed based on the demand for housing in the real estate market of Russia for the period 2016-2023. The study identified various factors that influence the cost of housing, including the weakening of the ruble, increases in the average salary level, and increases in oil prices. The weighted average mortgage rate had a negative impact on housing prices, while other factors had positive impacts. The results of this study will help to understand the dynamics of the housing market in Russia and provide insights into how economic and social changes affect housing prices and transactions.It was shown that an increase in average per capita income, the annual volume of housing commissioned, the share of young people aged 20-34, and the Moscow Exchange Index had a positive impact. However, rising oil prices had a negative effect. Adding fictitious variables revealed that COVID-19 had a positive effect on property prices, but a negative one on demand due to increased prices and some sellers leaving the market. Cluster analysis identified five regional clusters with different levels of economic development. A VEC model built in Moscow showed that a weakening ruble vs. dollar had a long-term positive impact on the average value of new properties, while unemployment, oil prices, and weighted average mortgage rates had a negative impact.The short-term forecast, based on the ARIMA model, was also evaluated. It indicates an upcoming increase in the price per square meter of real estate until September 2024.