Resilience Assessment of Russian Metallurgical Companies in the Conditions of Structural Crisis

We have developed and tested the resilience index of Russian companies in the metallurgical sector. Due to the limited data for 2022, 6 companies that have publicly available annual reports are proposed for consideration. A case study method was used to study the impact of the structural crisis caused by the sanctions imposed in 2022. Based on data from GMK Norilskiy Nickel PAO and OK RUSAL resilience factors that have undergone changes as a result of operational, financial, and logistical problems have been studied via case method. Key research results: 1 A resilience index has been built for 6 leading public Russian companies from the metallurgical industry for 2017-2023. Its main parameters are Altman's 5-factor model, the company's horizon index, economic value added (EVA), strategic flexibility, as well as environmental and social components of resilience. 2 Based on the analysis, we determined the position in which companies started 2022. It was revealed that companies characterized as farsighted have multidirectional dynamics of the index, some farsighted retained their vision, others changed; almost all companies have a positive economic value added; companies actively changed their horizontal position on the matrix of financial strategies during the period under review. 3 Case study of GMK Norilskiy Nickel PAO and OK RUSAL was conducted, in which the dynamics of the resilience index during 2022-2023 were studied and the factors that influenced them were described. The decisions of the company's management, which they took to offset the risks caused by the imposition of sanctions, were tracked. The companies redirected trade flows inside the country and changed the vector from Europe to Asia, optimized the contractor base during construction, and also restructured the company's capital through refinancing. The position of companies on the strategic matrix is determined and the applicability of the index for subsequent analysis is considered: component-by-component use in their strategies is possible, as well as use by companies in other industries. Keywords: strategic resilience, operational resilience, financial resilience, Altman model, economic value added, emerging capital markets, horizon index, metallurgy, structural crisis.