Subjective Political, Economic and Psychological Predictors of the Intention of Relocants to Return to Russia

This work is devoted to the study of the intention of Russian emigrants who left Russia after February 24, 2022 (relocants) to return back, as well as factors influencing the level of expressed intention. The goal of this study was to study the role of subjective political, economic and psychological factors in the intention of relocants to return to Russia. In order to achieve this goal, a theoretical framework was formulated, which is based on the motives of emigration and the factors influencing return. The study was conducted by regression analysis of data obtained from a survey of more than a hundred relocants from different countries. The relocants answered questions about their intention to return, their financial situation, trust in political institutions in Russia and the host country, as well as fears and identities that could presumably influence their migration intentions. One of the main conclusions of this work is the fact that the reluctance to return to Russia is largely due to dissatisfaction with the economic situation in Russia and psychological factors: primarily fears (of war and persecution in Russia) and a pessimistic vision of Russia. Despite this, the financial situation of the remaining relocants does not affect their intention to return. The self-identification of the relocators also plays an important role: Russian identity has a positive effect on the intention to return to Russia. At the same time, political trust in Russia does not affect migration intentions, but distrust of the authorities of the host country may increase the desire to return. The conclusion of the work provides an interpretation of the conclusions, as well as recommendations for attracting relocants back to Russia. We believe that first of all, the relocants need to feel that they will be safe and economically stable in Russia, and this feeling, as well as security and stability itself, must be guaranteed.