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Factors of Capital Movement in the EAEU Countries in the Period from 2010 to 2022

Student: Alik Babaev

Supervisor: Anastasia Podrugina

Faculty: Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs

Educational Programme: World Economy (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2024

The relevance of the chosen research topic is due to the following reasons. In the last decade, the global economy has been going through a turning point, accompanied by global structural transformations. Many experts note that the processes of globalization of the world economy have actually ended, and the opposite processes of deglobalization have begun. The consequence of deglobalization may be the division of the world economy into separate blocks, the so-called geo-economic fragmentation, which will be reflected in all areas of the world economy, and primarily in the change in the structure and scale of world trade, the international division of labor and international capital movement. In this regard, the process of formation and development of integration unions – separate blocks in the global economy, in particular, those that form countries with transformational economies and developing countries - deserves attention. The development of integration unions and economies of developing countries requires additional financial injections by attracting foreign capital. However, due to the transformation of the global economy, the trends of international capital movement will also change, which may create difficulties in the development of the described emerging economies. Therefore, the definition of the main patterns, factors and problems of international capital movement in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) currently seems relevant. In connection with the above, the purpose of the study is to analyze the factors of capital movement in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union in the period from 2010 to 2022 to determine the main patterns and problems of capital movement and develop recommendations for the development of capital movement in the EAEU countries. To achieve the goal, it seems necessary to solve the following tasks: 1) to determine the nature, forms of international capital movement and the impact of capital movement on the economies of developing countries; 2) to analyze theoretical approaches to the allocation of capital movement factors; 3) conduct a statistical study of capital flows in the EAEU countries in the period from 2010 to 2022; 4) identify the main factors of capital flows in the EAEU countries in the period from 2010 to 2022; 5) identify and assess trends and problems of capital flows in the EAEU countries; 6) to develop recommendations on the development of capital flows in the EAEU countries. The object of the study is the international movement of capital in the EAEU countries. The subject of the study is the factors of capital movement in the EAEU countries in the period from 2010 to 2022. The main hypothesis of the study is that the most significant factors influencing the attraction of international capital to the EAEU countries are the size of the market (economic growth rates), the openness of the economy (trade), the inflation rate, the real interest rate, and human capital. The research methodology involves the use of general scientific methods in the process of writing the work, such as comparative analysis, synthesis, expert assessment, a systematic approach, as well as methods of economics – statistical analysis, correlation and regression analysis, economic and mathematical modeling. The scientific novelty of the study is to identify the factors of international capital movement in the EAEU countries based on a multifactorial regression model developed to assess the determinants of foreign investment in the ASEAN countries. The international movement of capital and its factors are well studied and systematized in economic theory and the theory of international economic relations. The main provisions of the work are based on the works of such foreign and Russian researchers as: J.P. Aggarwal, J.P. Byrne, A.S. Bulatov, R. Vernon, E. Villanger, J.H. Dunning, E. Domar, I.S. Ivanchenko, K. Iversen, I. Kolstad, A.V. Kuznetsov, V. Leontiev, D.R. de Mello, V.Y. Nalivaisky, R. Nurkse, B. Olin, D. Ricardo, V.E. Rybalkin, P. Samuelson, N. Fiss, T.S. Ford, B. Frey, G. Haberler, S.H. Hymer, R. Harrod, E. Heckscher, F. Schneider, etc. Much attention is also paid to the study of factors contributing to attracting foreign investment to developing countries or emerging market countries in the works of modern scientists, among whom one can note such researchers as: Sh. Ahmed, B. Bagbanian, M.Y. Golovnin, Y. Gorbunova, A. Ghosh, H.B. Duk, A. Zlate, K. Castiglione, J. Clark, O.V. Ledneva, V.I. Normaz, J. Smirnova, C.R. Torrisi, M.H. Khamis, A. Hasnakh, H.H. Hong, A.P. Tsypin, Chi-Keong Chung, B. Shahmoradi, R.K. Shivi, etc. It should be noted that the problems and trends of international capital movement in the EAEU have so far been insufficiently studied and poorly covered in the scientific literature. The final qualification work consists of an introduction, the main part, including three chapters, a conclusion and a list of used literature.

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