Estimation of the Export and Import Potential of the Russian Federation in the Automotive Industry Using the Partial Adjustment Model

The study is devoted to estimation of the export and import potential of the Russian Federation in the automotive industry. The purpose of this work is to study Russia's foreign trade activities in the automotive sector and assess the potential of exports and imports, taking into account the influence of external factors, including sanctions restrictions, using a partial adjustment model. The analysis is carried out for the four most common four-digit commodity subgroups of vehicles (in accordance with the classification of the Commodity Nomenclature of Foreign Economic Activity): buses, passenger vehicles, freight vehicles and special-purpose vehicles. Data from customs statistics of the Russian Federation were used (provided by the CTPI VAVT under the Ministry of Economic Development), as well as statistics from the World Bank and Rosstat for the period from 2016 to 2022. The potential assessment is carried out by three methods: Arellano-Bond, Blundell-Bond and the Arellano-Bond method adjusted for small sample. A meaningful interpretation of the results of assessing the partial adaptation model for each subgroup is proposed, the results are visualized and partner countries are ranked according to the estimated potential values. It was revealed that the most significant recipients of Russian exports of vehicles are Belarus and Kazakhstan, and the most significant suppliers of vehicles to Russia are China and Belarus. The methodology developed in the course of this study may be useful in making decisions about building trade relations with certain partners not only in the analyzed industry, but also in other sectors of Russian foreign trade.