Assessment of the Effect of Sanctions on Selected Indicators of the Russian Economy Using the Synthetic Control Method

Student: Belikova Nina

Educational Programme: Economics and Economic Policy (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2024

This study assesses the effect of sanctions on selected macroeconomic indicators, namely GDP per capita, import of goods and export of goods. The problem is solved using the synthetic control method. The robustness of the results obtained is controlled by two other methods: difference-in-difference and its synthetic analogue. For the analysis, a sample of macro-indicators of Russia and countries of the world is used for the period from 2010 to 2022. The data are annual and have a panel structure. To study the effect of sanctions, three main hypotheses were put forward, two of which were refuted, and one was confirmed: sanctions had a negative impact on Russian imports of goods, and in relation to GDP per capita and exports of goods, they rather led to the opposite effect.

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