Comparative Analysis of the Energy Policies of the Russian Federation and China in Central Asia from 2013 to 2023

Our research primarily focuses on doing a comparative analysis of the energy policies pursued by Russia and China in Central Asia over the last decade. The main aim is to analyze the influence of China and Russia's energy policies on their bilateral relationship, and to assess the potential for future energy cooperation between the two nations in Central Asia. The research results are now summarized as follows. 1. The Buzan's Copenhagen School's securitization theory, under the constructivist framework, is more suited to explain the dynamics between energy importing nations, energy exporting countries, and energy transporting countries. This theory posits that security research must address a number of key concerns:who, on what issues, under what conditions, and at what impact and cost, can successfully express opinions or create security practices. These questions align with our own perspective. 2. The disparities in energy strategies between China and Russia in Central Asia can be succinctly outlined as follows.1) Exploitation of distinct frameworks to conduct energy policy in Central Asia, for China is BRI, which promotes cooperation between China and Central Asian states in all aspects. 2) Different interpretation of term “energy”, Russia use “energy” as a weapon to maintain its influence in Central Asia, while energy serves as one of the main driving reasons behind China’s more assertive foreign policy. 3) The energy fields in China and Central Asia demonstrate a high degree of complementarity, China shares technology and financial aids with Central Asian states, while Central Asia shares energy resources with China. Now the partnership between them is “oil gas + renewable energy”. 4) China now has superior position in cooperation with Central Asia by establishing comprehensive infrastructure in Central Asia that covers all aspects of the oil and gas industry. 5) Russia’s behavior in Central Asia was influenced by western sanctions. 3. China and Russia have a history of cooperation in Central Asia. BRI and EAEU may seem to have an economic purpose, they differ significantly in terms of their content. China prioritizes achieving concrete economic outcomes, while Russia aims to develop a distinct sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space to solidify its place as a major great power. The two nations can allocate tasks in Central Asia, involves Russia taking responsibility for maintaining security in the region, while China focuses on the development of infrastructure. Consequently, Russia must depend on political methods, specifically by establishing itself as the exclusive provider of security and political stability, as well as acting as an arbitrator in times of conflict. Thus, Russia can adapt to China's growing influence in Central Asia by cooperating and being pragmatic while maintaining its soft power and military presence. China and Russia test their strategic alliance in Central Asia, despite their divergent views of the SCO. China and Russia's Central Asia collaboration supports their strategic interests. 4. Our suggestions for Russia are: engage in cooperation with China; enhance its political influence in Central Asia; hasten the process of restructuring its own economy; and accelerate the modernization of the energy sector. The suggestions for China are more detailed, mainly: Optimize the efficiency of the China-Central Asia energy collaboration. Establish an optimal investment climate, maintain efforts to broaden the energy composition, and enhance the share of renewable energy consumption. Improve the energy diplomacy mechanism in Central Asia. Strengthen China-Central Asia security cooperation. Facilitate the implementation of the “dual track," the integration and cooperation between conventional and renewable energy sources. Foster technological collaboration in energy conservation and emission reduction.