Evaluation of the Reasons of International Business Exit in the Case of the Structural Crisis in Russia

This study raises the question of the reasons for the departure of foreign companies from Russia during the structural crisis caused by the worthening geopolitical situation in Russia and in the world. To achieve the objectives of the study, a wide database was collected on exited and stayed foreign companies for the period from 2014 to 2023, including common information about the company (country of origin, industry, ticker symbol, TIN of Russian subsidiaries), as well as consolidated financial information about the head organizations and their Russian enterprises. Based on the data obtained, 4 statistically significant models were built to assess the probability of a company exiting in conditions of a structural crisis using the example of the case of Russia in 2022. The key parameters that influenced the decision of foreign company to exit from Russia have been identified; status of the country of registration of the head company (friendly/unfriendly), the impact of sanctions on the industry, CapEx of the subsidiary, operating efficiency of the head company's business, ROA of the Russian enterprise and ROE of the head organization (the statistical significance of each indicator has been confirmed).