The Afghanistan Factor in the Foreign Policy of Central Asian States on the Example of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (2020-2023)

The study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the Afghan crisis of 2021 and the subsequent Taliban in power in this country on the foreign security policy of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The phenomenon of the emergence of the Afghan threat and the new geopolitical reality in Central Asia after the collapse of the USSR is analyzed. Conclusions are drawn about the dynamics of cooperation between the Central Asian states and Afghanistan during the periods of control of the latter by different authorities. The main part of the paper analyzes the reaction to the coup in Afghanistan by the political elites of the Central Asian republics under study and assesses the dynamics of cooperation between these countries and the largest extra-regional actors: Russia, the USA and China. As conclusions of the study, the essential positioning of major actors in the region is provided and the prospects for the development of cooperation between these countries and the studied countries of Central Asia in the field of security are assessed. Moreover, in the theoretical aspect, a new look at the system of relations between large and small actors of the international system is proposed using and rethinking the concept of “Swing States”.