Assessment of the Impact of Regional Maternity Capital Programs on the Birth Rate of Children of Different Orders

The study evaluates the impact of regional maternity capital programs on the birth rate of children of different orders in the regions. Currently, regional maternity capital is one of the most popular measures of state support for families with children. Initially, the authors collected a panel of data on maternity capital programs in 85 regions in accordance with the regulatory acts of the subjects of the Russian Federation from 2011 to 2023. Interactive maps and program cards were prepared, allowing for a visual examination of their features. An analysis of the differences and typology of regional maternity capital programs aimed at the birth of children of different orders was conducted. Demographic and socio-economic indicators of the subjects were considered. Within this work, differences in the volume of payments and the conditions for receiving them were analyzed over time and space. In order to evaluate the impact of the regional maternity capital programs on birth rates, regression models were constructed and hypotheses about the influence of the variables under consideration on the birth rates of children of different orders were put forward based on the collected panel data. The robustness of the results was tested using regression model estimates on sub-samples of regions with prevailing religions, as well as with a dynamic difference-in-differences method. As a result, conclusions were drawn about the ineffectiveness of support measures for first children and the weak influence of maternity capital programs on second children's birth rates. However, maternity capital programs for the third child had a positive impact on the birth rates of third and subsequent children based on the study's findings.