Institutional Factors of Wishful Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

Student: Krasnoshhekova Anastasiya

Educational Programme: Statistical Analysis in Economics (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2024

Macroforecasts are carried out by many organizations around the world: government agencies, banks, think tanks, insurance and consulting companies, industrial production, private forecasters. Given the availability of effective models and forecasting methods today, the assessments of different experts differ, sometimes significantly. It is already known that the human factor plays a significant role, the question remains what it consists of. To use macroforecasts in the most effective way, it is necessary to understand the details of forecasters' work in order to have a complete picture and an objective view of the situation. This paper examines the possible impact of the company’s activities on the wishful bias of forecasts in Russia in financial, real sectors and think tanks.

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