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Comparison of Determinants of Sustainable Growth in Developed and Emerging Economies

Student: Bykov Andrei

Supervisor: Dmitry A. Veselov

Faculty: HSE Banking Institute

Educational Programme: Master of Finance (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2024

Since 2000 the political picture of the World has stabilized. A bloc of BRICS+ countries has begun to take shape. There are no empirical works studying difference in growth factors between BRICS+ and Western countries during this period. The work identifies predictors of growth. These predictors reflect the quality of physical and human capital, the state of institutions and the foreign economic environment. The Model with the dependent variable GDP per capita growth rate was built. Data were collected to empirically assess the influence of sustainable growth factors. Using the sample of 33 Western and 11 BRICS+ countries, the comparison of the determinants of economic growth was conducted in the time range 2000-2022. The method of panel data processing was determined. Fixed effects by time and countries were included. OLS parameter estimates were tested for robustness that includes regression extension on the growth rate of GDP per capita in parity prices. The heterogeneity of predictors was estimated by BRICS+ multiplier. It has been established that the GDP per capita convergence rate of Western countries is higher than that of BRICS+. It was also found that the effects of physical capital accumulation, trade openness and institutions on the economic growth are similar for the two blocs of countries.

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