The Impact of Social Networks on Electoral Success: Case Study of Direct Elections in Russian Federation’s Constituent Entities (2023)

This study investigates the influence of social media on the electoral success of candidates in direct elections for heads of constituent entities in Russia. The research, covering the period from May to September 2023, utilizes both quantitative regression models and qualitative content analysis. The quantitative analysis reveals that specific social media strategies, such as frequent posting, mentions of the Special Military Operation (SMO), and the number of followers, positively impact voter turnout and electoral outcomes. In contrast, higher engagement ratings do not correlate with electoral success. The qualitative analysis of specially selected high performing actor’s social media strategy underscores the importance of strategic content, consistent communication, and positive, direct engagement. The study challenges the Center-Periphery hypothesis, showing that alignment with national themes and the central government's agenda resonates across both central and peripheral regions. These findings highlight the transformative role of social media in modern political campaigns, offering valuable insights for future research and practical applications in political strategy.