International Trade and Violence: a Cross-Country Study

This paper examines the impact of international trade on violence in countries around the world using panel data including indicators from 100 + countries. The main hypothesis being tested is that intense international trade (volume of imports) can reduce the level of interpersonal violence (homicides) in a country. Econometric methods, including gravitational instruments, were used for the study. In the first stage, the annual synthetic volume of imports for each pair of countries was predicted based on indicators such as common language, distance, membership in trade unions. The second stage constructed a regression with the estimated volume of trade and tested the effect of the variable of interest on the kill rate. Data taken from World Bank, CEPII and Penn World Table databases. The study will help to deepen the understanding of the interrelationships between economic integration and social dynamics, and the results of the study can be useful for developing policies and programs to reduce violence and increase stability in the world.