The Economic Security Factor in the Trade Policy of the USA and China as a Catalyst for Geoeconomic Fragmentation

The trade confrontation between the USA and China has finally formed the geoeconomic fragmentation phenomenon as a process of existing trade and economic ties between states disruption, which began as a result of the Global financial crisis of 2008-2010. However, the problems arising in connection with the evolution of this phenomenon, its possible forms and consequences for economic world order remain poorly understood. The goal of this study is to assess the influence of the economic security factor in the trade policies of the United States and China on the geoeconomic fragmentation phenomenon formation, as well as to assess the dynamics of this phenomenon development outside the framework of the confrontation between the United States and China. In the course of this study, to formalize the trade aspect of geoeconomic fragmentation, the procedure for constructing a composite index was used, and a regression model was built to assess its impact on national economies development. The data selected as part of the research methodology contains trade indicators for 120 countries from 2008 to 2022. As a result, we came to the conclusion that the economic security factor in the trade policy of the United States and China has indeed become a catalyst for geoeconomic fragmentation, and, despite the decrease in its influence on this process in the period from 2018 to 2020, at the moment the countries of the rest of the world continue play a lesser role in its evolution and development. Finally, this study is expected to contribute to a better understanding of the geoeconomic fragmentation concept and sensitize policymakers and economists to the need to reform multilateral institutions to address the destabilization of global integration.