Socio-economic Consequences of Changes in the Business Climate in Russia

The purpose of the thesis is a comprehensive analysis of the impact of changes in the business environment in Russia on the socio-economic development of the country. As an indicator of the business climate in Russia, the work uses the business climate index developed by the Bank of Russia, the impact on the level of employment, on the index of physical output and on the fertility rate of enterprises was assessed. The analysis is based on data for the period from January 2010 to December 2023. The study uses the vector autoregression method. The optimal lag order is selected using the Sharpe coefficient, after constructing the model, the impulse responses of the studied variables to the shock of the business climate are analyzed and special attention is paid to the decomposition of variances. In the course of the work, the author comes to the conclusion that the components of the business climate, expressed in the work as an indicator of the business climate of the Bank of Russia, really affect macroeconomic indicators. At the same time, the effect of the impact is quite long-lasting, but at the same time it cannot be called completely determining the behavior of economic factors.