Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomics Drivers on the Securities Market

In recent years, the geopolitical situation globally has significantly worsened, profoundly impacting the Russian stock market. Specifically, the Russian market has faced numerous challenges, with economic sanctions being notably significant. The main goal of this work is to investigate the impact of key macroeconomic factors such as the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia, the US dollar exchange rate, Brent crude oil prices, and others on the Moscow Exchange index. In addition to analyzing internal factors, the influence of economic variables from the United States, the leading global economy, was examined, allowing for a comparison of the significance of internal and external factors for the Russian stock market. The main findings confirm the complex interrelations between macroeconomic indicators and the stock market. Based on internal macro factors, a forecast for the movement of the Moscow Exchange index until the end of 2024 was developed, which could serve as a key tool for making investment decisions. Econometric methods were used in the research, including time series analysis, multifactor regression, autoregression, and others. Additionally, the theoretical part described in the research allows for a deeper understanding of economics and stock markets. This research will be relevant for investors, government bodies, and all interested parties in the stock market.