Discussions on the Potential of Armed Conflict between China and Taiwan in Research and Analytical Works (2022–2023)

This study is devoted to studying the content of discussions about the potential of a China-Taiwan armed conflict in research and analytical works of the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of China (Taiwan) and Western countries. Particular attention was focused on the discourse analysis of publications on the topic of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait by authors from the above-mentioned states, as well as identifying the main factors and scenarios for the escalation of the China-Taiwan conflict based on the opinions and points of view of experts. When implementing the assigned tasks, qualitative and quantitative research methods were used. In addition to research and analytical works, the results of sociological surveys of the population of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and statistical data from the analysis and research division of The Economist Group were analyzed. The results of the study showed that today, based on publicly available information, it is impossible to predict an unambiguous scenario for the development of the China-Taiwan conflict, however, there is reason to assume that the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue are extremely low, and the discourse created by scientists and analysts directly influences the perception of a potential armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait by the world community and gives rise to different opinions regarding the legality of the actions of the People’s Republic of China in relation to Taiwan.