The Impact of Social Housing Policies on Fertility: the Case of OECD Countries

The aim of this research is to identify and evaluate the impact of social housing policy on fertility rates in OECD countries. We are interested in the way social housing policy, specifically social housing itself, affects the total fertility rate, and whether social housing can be used as a tool to address the demographic crisis in developed countries. We conducted a panel data analysis for 24 developed countries with similar income levels, covering the period from 1970 to 2020. Two specifications were developed: one with a longer time frame (1970-2020) and a smaller set of variables, and another with a shorter time frame (1990-2020) and a larger number of variables. For each specification we assessed the impact of factors on the total fertility rate. We constructed pooled regression models, fixed-effects models and random-effects models. To compare the results of coefficient estimation from these models and choose the most robust one, we used the Hausman test, Breusch-Pagan test, and F-test. Preference was given to the fixed-effects model. The analysis revealed a slightly negative impact of the percentage of social housing in housing stock on the fertility rate for the longer time frame and no effect for the period from 1990 to 2020. The analysis also includes composite indices for rent control, tenant security and housing rationing indexes. It also considers such factors as marital status, prevalence of higher education among women, female unemployment and the gender income gap.