Studying the Factors of Long-Term Stability of Political Regimes Using Markov Chains

The study of the stability of political regimes is a classic question of political science. However, despite the emergence of many modern theories and databases, the key question – why some political regimes survive while others collapse – remains without a definitive answer. The paper examines the possibility of using Markov chains to explain the factors of long-term stability of political regimes. Markov chains offer a unique standpoint by viewing the transition from one regime to another from the perspective of conditional probability. Based on the Polity5 index and World Bank data, several hypotheses are tested. They try to measure the effect of macroeconomic and macrosocial parameters on the stability of political regimes The resulting Markov models allow us to see differences in the influence of factors. For example, growth in GDP per capita leads to the greater stability of autocracies and democracies, but has a negative impact on that of hybrid political regimes. And access to non-tax oil revenue makes autocracies more stable but poses an additional threat to democracies. In conclusion, a discussion is made on the advantages and disadvantages Markov chains in analyzing the dynamics of political regimes. Several ways are mentioned that improve the quality of models. The further potential of using the method is shown.