Effect of the Digital Ruble on Economic Growth

This study examines Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and their impact on economic growth. The research aims to assess the effect of the digital ruble implementation, scheduled for 2025, on Russian economic growth. The evaluation will be based on the experiences of other countries that have already implemented CBDCs, such as the Bahamas, Jamaica, Nigeria, Caribbean countries, and others in the final stages of pilot testing. The sample also includes countries with similar economic structures but without CBDCs. Regression and synthetic control methods were employed. The findings indicate that the effect of the digital ruble on Russian GDP will be minor due to the large size of the Russian economy, but positive, estimated at approximately +0.234% one-time increase in annual GDP. An additional positive effect is also expected, related to the possibility of cross-border transfers under sanctions.