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The Role of Chinese “Dual Circulation strategy” during the Period of Economic Slowdown (2013-2023)

Student: Ekaterina Komarova

Supervisor: Olga Kharina

Faculty: Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs

Educational Programme: Socioeconomic and Political Development of Modern Asia (Master)

Final Grade: 10

Year of Graduation: 2024

This master's thesis explores the implementation of China's "Dual Circulation" strategy in the People's Republic of China (PRC) economy during the economic downturn between 2013 and 2023. In recent decades, China has experienced significant economic transformation, moving from poverty to rapid development under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping and his "Reform and Opening up" policy. However, the country is now facing challenges such as environmental degradation, income inequality, and geopolitical challenges. Launched in 2020, the "Dual Circulation Strategy" aims to shift China's economic focus from an export-driven model dependent on the West's technology and trade ties, to a more self-sufficient model with strong support for the domestic market. This strategy aims to strengthen China's position in the international arena, but it faces significant challenges. The ambitious plans to significantly reshape the world order face difficulties.Understanding the role of the Dual Circulation strategy for China and the global economy is crucial in assessing China's future trajectory in the face of global uncertainty. The study aims to gain a comprehensive understanding of the Chinese government's approach to improving the economy and its impact on both domestic and international markets by examining five-year plans, official government speeches, economic indicators from Chinese and Western sources, and market activity reports. The focus of the study is on comparing the goals of the strategy with the actual performance of China's socio-economic sectors during the economic downturn and determining the future path of Dual Circulation development.

Full text (added May 23, 2024)

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