Assessment of Financial Risk Factors and Forecasting of Bankruptcy of Russian Chemical Industry Companies

The objective of this study is to access default risk factors and forecast the likelihood of bankruptcy for companies within the Russian chemical industry. Existing literature supports the notion of industry-specific characteristics within the Russian manufacturing sector. Focusing solely on the chemical industry enables a more precise analysis of companies' financial stability and enhances the accuracy of predictive models. Utilizing data from the Spark-Interfax database, information on 19 financial variables was collected for a sample of 776 companies during the period from 2019 to 2022. Through the application of logistic regression and machine learning techniques, key factors contributing to default risk were identified, including the coefficient of mobility of property, return on assets and sales, the coefficient of provision of own working capital and the coefficient of current liquidity. Both models demonstrated a high classification accuracy of 82% and 98%, respectively.