Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Russian Aluminum Exporters

The present study is dedicated to evaluating the impact of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Russian aluminum exporters. In the context of international trade, especially for countries that are major exporters, issues related to identifying and assessing the risks and opportunities of implementing CBAM have a significant and multifaceted importance. In this context, there is a lack of research on a narrow strategic analysis of the aluminum industry, taking into account internal and external (macro- and microeconomic) aspects, as well as adjustments made by the European regulator to the provisions of the CBAM mechanism, published at the end of 2023. As part of this study, a quantitative assessment of the consequences of implementing CBAM for Russian aluminum exporters and a qualitative analysis of the risks and opportunities of CBAM's impact on companies' competitiveness were conducted. The main current aspects of the CBAM mechanism in the context of global climate policy were analyzed; key principles of the CBAM mechanism in the aluminum industry were identified considering its specific greenhouse gas emission characteristics; Russian aluminum exporters were comprehensively characterized with a parallel analysis of the international market; a quantitative assessment of the economic effects of implementing CBAM was carried out, and the positions of Russian aluminum exporters considering the CBAM mechanism were determined using strategic analysis tools. As a result, recommendations were developed to minimize risks and utilize opportunities related to CBAM for Russian aluminum exporters. The practical significance of this study lies in the quantitative assessment of the consequences of implementing CBAM for Russian aluminum exporters, as well as in the qualitative analysis of the risks and opportunities of CBAM's impact on companies' competitiveness.