Analysis of the Moscow Real Estate Market in 2022-24

Using close sensitive data provided by one of the biggest shopping malls in Moscow and its tenants, the research is analyzing the impact of the “sign” events of 2022 on the key economic indicators of the shopping mall and the factors determining tenant effectiveness. The results show that in the 1st quarter of 2024, compared to 2021, consumer traffic decreased by 10%, the real total turnover of the shopping mall increased by 16.4%, real total rent payments increased by 4.4%, and the occupancy rate returned to pre-crisis levels. The analysis indicates that there was a significant increase in consumer traffic linked to an increased demand primarily for perfumes in the first days after the start of the SMO. The model results show a significant improvement of the tenant situation in the public catering sector after the closure of McDonald’s and KFC, a drawdown in the Technology & Electronics sector, and a significant improvement for domestic brands in comparison to foreign ones.