Impact of Mortgage Lending Features on Primary Real Estate Market in the Russian Federation

At the moment, the phenomenon of preferential mortgages and its impact on prices for primary housing have not been fully studied. In addition, the question of what factors influence the real estate market of the Russian Federation in the short and long term remains relevant. The existing scientific works lead to contradictory conclusions: on the one hand, the set of factors is similar in meaning, but their influence on the dependent variable is different. In addition, there are omissions regarding the numerical impact of factors on house prices. Subsidized mortgages are a recent phenomenon, which means that there is not yet an established methodology for assessing their impact. This paper uses an approach based on the identification of a long-run stable cointegration relationship between the parameters of preferential mortgage lending, as well as other control and explanatory factors, and primary housing prices. We analyze aggregate data on housing prices by 71 regions of the Russian Federation for 5 years (60 months) from January 2019 to December 2023. Statistical data were obtained from the databases of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Rosstat, Dom Rf and SberIndex. The total number of observations is 4260. FMOLS, DOLS models were used for empirical analysis of long-term trends, and Panel ECM models were used for short-term trends. The results of the study showed the significance of individual factors of preferential mortgage lending in the overall increase in housing costs. The long-run impact of changes in mortgage lending parameters was quantified. The results showed that despite the increase in prices, concessional programs still remain beneficial for preferential groups of population. The conclusions of the paper can be used by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and other market regulators to choose the optimal configuration of preferential mortgage programs.