HSE Scientists Have Examined Potential Impact of Nuclear Power on Sustainable Development
Researchers at HSE University have developed a set of mathematical models to predict the impact of nuclear power on the Sustainable Development Index. If the share of nuclear power in the global energy mix increases to between 20% and 25%, the global Sustainable Development Index (SDI) is projected to grow by one-third by 2050. In scenarios where the share of nuclear power grows more slowly, the increase in the SDI is found to be lower. The study has been published in Nuclear Energy and Technology.
Climate change, disparities in living standards, energy shortages, and other challenges are driving humanity to seek solutions that can ensure sustainable development in the future. Some scientists believe that re-evaluating the role of nuclear power in the energy mix could be a key factor.
Researchers at HSE University have developed a set of mathematical models to predict how changes in the share of nuclear power could impact social, economic, and environmental indicators globally. To evaluate the impact of the energy mix, the researchers used the Sustainable Development Index (SDI), which measures progress toward achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations in 2015: eradicating poverty, improving public health, ensuring quality education, preserving the environment, and more.
The calculations employed an interdisciplinary approach that incorporated several elements: intersystem interaction theory, management of key target indicators using a matrix of core competencies, and a vector interpretation of optimal management processes. This approach made it possible to account for the mutual influence of the systems selected for analysis, to identify factors that contribute to an increase in the index, and to visualise and evaluate the results.
The scientists examined three scenarios describing changes in the share of nuclear power (NP) in global energy consumption: a scenario with a significant decrease to 1-3%, a scenario with gradual growth to 7-10%, and a scenario with rapid expansion to 63-68%. Each scenario was analysed considering different trends: either a rapid increase in the share of renewable energy sources coupled with a decrease in traditional hydrocarbons, or the continued use of fossil fuels alongside slow growth in renewable energy.
According to the forecasts, the most effective strategy would be to increase the share of nuclear power to 20-25% of total global energy consumption by 2050. This increase could reduce carbon dioxide emissions, boost the Sustainable Development Index by 36%, and raise it to 0.7–0.75 from its current value of 0.55. The scientists note that while an economic downturn is expected in the initial stages of implementing such a scenario due to the need for technology development, the indicator will eventually increase.
Сo-author of the paper, Professor at the HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs
'The proposed advanced development scenario occupies an intermediate position between the highly dynamic development and slow growth scenarios. It involves increasing the share of nuclear generation by nearly five times compared to current levels. However, due to existing constraints, it falls short of the highly dynamic development scenario by a factor of 2.5.'
In the scenario where the share of nuclear power is reduced to 1-3%, the Sustainable Development Index declines. The researchers attribute this to rising energy costs, which will lead to job losses, reduced production, and a decline in well-being for the population. Some developed countries may improve their economic positions, but this will likely come at the expense of lowering living standards in developing countries and increasing the proportion of people living below the poverty line. Moreover, this approach does not address the issue of carbon dioxide emissions. The projected SDI for this scenario is estimated to be between 0.25 and 0.3 by 2050.
In the scenario where the share of nuclear power grows slowly to 7-10%, the index will initially increase but is expected to decline by 2050. The scientists explain that the increase in energy consumption and depletion of natural resources will drive up energy prices, and the share of nuclear power will be insufficient to stabilise these prices. With this approach, the SDI is projected to range from 0.45 to 0.5.
The scenario of a highly dynamic increase in the share of nuclear power to 63-68% requires substantial financial investments in the early stages of expanding nuclear generation capacity. This could potentially lead to a redistribution of funds, underfunding of certain industries, and, as a result, a decline in the index during the initial decades. The SDI for this scenario is projected to be between 0.85 and 0.90 by 2050. However, this scenario is considered unfeasible due to existing resource constraints.
'Given the increasing energy demands, the need to address inequality and unfair distribution of resources, and the desire to reduce the environmental footprint, our study underscores the importance of continued support for nuclear power technologies to enhance the SDI,' comments Anastasia Galkina, PhD in Economics from the HSE Doctoral School of Economics and co-author of the paper. 'Our ideas have already been incorporated into Rosatom's strategy for advancing nuclear power in Russia.'
See also:
Beauty in Details: HSE University and AIRI Scientists Develop a Method for High-Quality Image Editing
Researchers from theHSE AI Research Centre, AIRI, and the University of Bremen have developed a new image editing method based on deep learning—StyleFeatureEditor. This tool allows for precise reproduction of even the smallest details in an image while preserving them during the editing process. With its help, users can easily change hair colour or facial expressions without sacrificing image quality. The results of this three-party collaboration were published at the highly-cited computer vision conference CVPR 2024.
HSE Scientists Have Developed a New Model of Electric Double Layer
This new model accounts for a wide range of ion-electrode interactions and predicts a device's ability to store electric charge. The model's theoretical predictions align with the experimental results. Data on the behaviour of the electric double layer (EDL) can aid in the development of more efficient supercapacitors for portable electronics and electric vehicles. The study has been published in ChemPhysChem.
Psychologists from HSE University Discovered How Love for Animals Affects Relationships with People
Researchers from HSE University have identified a connection between attachment to pets and attitudes toward nature and other people. The study found that the more joy people derive from interacting with their pets, the more they want to help others. However, love for animals is not always associated with concern for nature. The findings were published in the Social Psychology and Society journal.
HSE Scientists Propose Using Heart Rate Analysis to Diagnose Anxiety and Depression
A group of scientists at HSE University have discovered how anxiety and depression can be diagnosed by analysing heart rate. It turns out that under mental stress, the heart rate of individuals with a predisposition to mental health disorders differs from that of healthy individuals, especially when performing more complex tasks. These changes in cardiovascular parameters can even be detected using a pulse oximeter or a smartwatch. The study findings have been published in Frontiers in Psychiatry.
Researchers at HSE in St Petersburg Develop Superior Machine Learning Model for Determining Text Topics
Topic models are machine learning algorithms designed to analyse large text collections based on their topics. Scientists at HSE Campus in St Petersburg compared five topic models to determine which ones performed better. Two models, including GLDAW developed by the Laboratory for Social and Cognitive Informatics at HSE Campus in St Petersburg, made the lowest number of errors. The paper has been published in PeerJ Computer Science.
Narcissistic and Workaholic Leaders Guide Young Firms to Success
Scientists at HSE University—St. Petersburg studied how the founder's personal characteristics impact a young firm's performance. It turns out that a narcissist and workaholic who also fosters innovation will effectively grow their company. The paper has been published in IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.
Biologists at HSE University Warn of Potential Errors in MicroRNA Overexpression Method
Researchers at HSE University and the RAS Institute of Bioorganic Chemistry have discovered that a common method of studying genes, which relies on the overexpression of microRNAs, can produce inaccurate results. This method is widely used in the study of various pathologies, in particular cancers. Errors in experiments can lead to incorrect conclusions, affecting the diagnosis and treatment of the disease. The study findings have been published in BBA.
Green Energy Patents Boost Company Profitability
An ESG strategy—Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance—not only helps preserve the environment but can also generate tangible income. Thus, the use of renewable energy sources (RES) and green technologies in the energy sector enhances return on investment and profitability. In contrast, higher CO2 emissions result in lower financial performance. This has been demonstrated in a collaborative study by the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences and the European University at St. Petersburg. Their findings have been published in Frontiers in Environmental Science.
HSE Scientist Optimises Solution of Hydrodynamics Problems
Roman Gaydukov, Associate Professor at the MIEM HSE School of Applied Mathematics, has modelled the fluid flow around a rotating disk with small surface irregularities. His solution allows for predicting fluid flow behaviour without the need for powerful supercomputers. The results have been published in Russian Journal of Mathematical Physics.
Neuroscientists from HSE University Learn to Predict Human Behaviour by Their Facial Expressions
Researchers at the Institute for Cognitive Neuroscience at HSE University are using automatic emotion recognition technologies to study charitable behaviour. In an experiment, scientists presented 45 participants with photographs of dogs in need and invited them to make donations to support these animals. Emotional reactions to the images were determined through facial activity using the FaceReader program. It turned out that the stronger the participants felt sadness and anger, the more money they were willing to donate to charity funds, regardless of their personal financial well-being. The study was published in the journal Heliyon.