Unpredictable American Elections

On June 1, 2016, Prof. William Bianco, Professor of Political Science at Indiana University, Bloomington read a lecture at the School of Political Science on ‘The 2016 American Elections: What (If Anything) Can Political Science Tell Us?’

More than six months before Election Day, the 2016 election cycle has already been a humbling experience for American political scientists. A year ago, it was hard to find an election scholar who thought Hillary Clinton would have trouble winning the Democratic presidential nomination – and no one seriously thought of Donald Trump as a potential Republican candidate. How were we so far off base? Do our theories tell us anything about what happens next – from who is likely to win the general election to the likelihood of a full-scale realignment of parties and voters?

Here is a video of the lecture, in which Prof. William Bianco addresses all these questions and more.

William Bianco is Professor of Political Science at Indiana University in Bloomington, member of the NSF Political Science Panel and am currently on the Editorial Board of the American Journal of Political Science’.. His current research uses a tool for predicting majority rule decisions to understand institutional choices in legislatures, the evolution of parties and party systems, and responsiveness to citizen demands — in the US Congress, state legislatures, and countries throughout the world. He has also coauthored a textbook  American Politics Today.

June 17, 2016