Long-term economic growth in Russia: prospects for recovery
On May 12 the roundtable was held, chaired by Evsey Gurvich, head of the Economic Expert Group. Topical issues of economic growth were discussed, including prospects after the coronavirus pandemic and forecasts for the short-term and long-term growth rates of the Russian economy. The current budget policy, the experience of recovery after the crises of 1998 and 2008, and sectoral growth drivers, in particular, were considered.
The experts were:
- (2:11) Natalia Akindinova (HSE University) “Mid-term prospects for the Russian economy during the coronavirus pandemic”
- (17:35) Marek Dabrowski (HSE University, Bruegel, CASE) “Factors limiting Russia’s long-term growth”
- (33:42) Alexandr Shirov (IEF RAS) “The main directions of the long-term forecast of socio-economic development”
- (48:39) Dmitry Belousov (TsMAKP) "Potentials of economic growth and modernization of the Russian economy"
- (1:02:45) Ilya Voskoboynikov (HSE University) “Sources of labor productivity growth after the 1998 and 2008 crises in Russia”
Natalia Akindinova presented a report on the mid-term prospects of the Russian economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The main indicators of macro-forecasts, and estimates of budget parameters for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios were considered.
Marek Dabrowski outlined the factors that determine the long-term growth rates of Russia. Based on long-term trends and the demographic situation, forecasts were made for the short-term and long-term growth rates of the Russian economy.
Alexandr Shirov presented the main directions of the long-term forecast of socio-economic development. The potential for economic growth in Russia until 2025, according to this forecast, has decreased to 3.4%. The cumulative impact of technological shifts on production by type of activity was considered separately, as were the effects of the implementation of environmental scenarios on macroeconomic dynamics in Russia.
Dmitry Belousov presented an expanded view of the causes of the current crisis in the economies of Russia and the world, starting with transformations in the oil market and ending with the geopolitical situation. He stressed the importance of adjusting national projects and supporting business in order to quickly overcome stagnation in the economy.
Can the experience of the recovery of the Russian economy after the crises of 1998 and 2008 help today? Ilya Voskoboynikov addressed this question by outlining the sectors of the Russian economy that were the drivers of growth in the previous decades and which, in his opinion, will become drivers in the crisis. The role of industries in the growth of the capital-labor ratio and productivity growth was considered separately. Assumptions were made about adjusting national projects to stimulate growth.
Materials for the round table: