Preprint publication: “The post-shock growth of the Russian economy. The experience of the 1998 and 2008 crises and a look into the future”

The work was published in the WP3 series "Labor market issues" and studies the global recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates suggest Russian GDP in 2020 will fall by 2–8%, meaning the current crisis may be more severe than the crises of 1998 and 2008. In the coming years, the Russian economy will have to recover and enter a new long-term growth trajectory. What sources and sectors can make this happen?

Based on the experience of previous crises, and using sectoral accounts of economic growth and Russia KLEMS data, possible sources of recovery for the Russian economy after the 2020 crisis are considered. By analogy with the post-2008 recovery, it is likely to be associated with a global increase in demand for raw materials and the response of the expanded production complex (EPC). The stagnation after 2008 was due to a decrease in production efficiency, especially in the EPC, and lack of technological catch-up. Measures to stimulate growth should include finding ways to improve the efficiency of the EPC, to stimulate the adaptation of advanced technologies, and to preserve existing adaptation channels during the crisis—for example, integrating successful export-oriented industries into global value chains.

Authors: Ilya Voskoboynikov, Eduard Baranov, Ksenia Bobyleva, Rostislav Kapeliushnikov, Dmitri Piontkovski, Alexandr Roskin, Anton Tolokonnikov

The full version of the preprint is available in Russian here.