The experience of post-crisis recovery of the Russian economy
On September 18, Ilya Voskoboynikov presented his report “Recovery experiences of the Russian economy Implications to the Indian Economy” at a seminar organized by the Research Institute of the State Bank of India, "Experience of the post-crisis recovery of the Russian economy".
The report was devoted to the impact of the COVID shock on the Russian economy and the recovery prospects. Indian audience are interested in the tree aspects: transition from the rapid growth rates of the 2000s. to moderate; a special role of the service sector; and an expanding share of the informal economy.
This paper considers possible sources of recovery of the Russian economy after the 2020 crisis, based on the experience of previous crises. Sectoral accounts of economic growth and Russia KLEMS data used for analysis. By analogy with the post-2008 recovery, it is likely to be associated with an increase in global demand for raw materials and the response of the oil and gas complex. The stagnation after 2008 was due to a decrease in production efficiency, especially in oil and gas and the end of technological catch-up.
Growth stimulation should include improving the efficiency of the oil and gas complex, adaptation of advanced technologies, and preserving adaptation channels during the crisis - for example, successful export-oriented industries integrated into global value chains.