Modelling the Impact of Mass Protests of 2010s on Political Change

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Modelling the Impact of Mass Protests of 2010s on Political Change

(by using Data Envelopment and Social Network Analysis)

Dmitry Zaytsev (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Margarita Erofeeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

 The analysis of Mass protests of 2010s shows the non-linear nature of the political changes as well as the different roles that protest publics could play in the mechanism of political changes: triggers of the democratic development; democratic innovators in authoritarian environment; watchdogs raising concerns about quality of democracy, et cetera - depending on the prevailing conditions and the actions of other actors. Authors raise research question of modelling the mechanisms of political change: the conditions of the growing wave of democratization in embedded democracies and in consolidated democracies, and the crisis of traditional democratic institutions parties in hybrid and authoritarian regimes.

Qualitative analysis, based on event-analysis and expert interviews, allows to figure out general models, depended on the role of protests publics as new actor in the mechanism of political changes.

In this paper the proposed models of protests publics’ impact in the mechanism of political change will be tested by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Results build on the outcomes will allow the authors to use Social Network Analysis to test models, received from the qualitative study. Besides, cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling will be used that will also allow to verify results received by using qualitative paradigm of data collection and analysis.

Authors reflect on the question to what extent protests publics influence the political change along with other factors and actors. General factors that influence political change will be figured out and following interpretation will be made. Typology of countries under analysis will be made and compared with the proposed models.