Foresight Theory and Concepts

2024/2025

Учебный год

ENG

Обучение ведется на английском языке

3

Кредиты

Кто читает:

Департамент образовательных программ

Статус:

Курс обязательный

Когда читается:

1-й курс, 3 модуль

Преподаватель

Чулок Александр Александрович

Course Syllabus

Abstract

Foresight is the art and science of exploring and shaping the future. It is the application of systemic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering, and medium to long-term vision building process to informing present- day decisions and mobilizing joint actions. With growing complexities and uncertainties in our world, Foresight has become a first and key step of innovation.

Learning Objectives

• To form students' understanding of the basics Foresight and Strategic Planning in a complementary stance, including methods for scanning environments, identifying trends and drivers of change with weak signals and wild cards, developing future scenarios and visions and making long, medium and short term strategic plans for identifying priorities and actions.
• To introduce the concept of Foresight, its theoretical background as well as the process, and approaches; quantitative and qualitative methods like trend watching, horizon scanning, big data analysis, scenario planning, prioritization, Delphi surveys, strategic and technological roadmaps; innovative ways of decision-making and STI policy formulation; STI strategy- and priority-setting; cooperation and networking with stakeholders.

Expected Learning Outcomes

• Ability to build necessary theory, argumentation and practice of using Foresight and Strategic planning at the national, regional and corporate levels
• Ability to use quantitative and qualitative approaches, processes and methods in a practical case study
• Ability to devote resources to long term management strategies and collaboration with research base for improving management concepts (ILO PC-1)
• Able to independently make informed organizational and managerial decisions, assess their operational and organizational effectiveness and social significance, ensure their implementation in a complex (including cross-cultural) and dynamic environment.
• Ability to assess and review company strategy implementation and develop and monitor measures to reach strategic objectives.

Course Contents

• 1. Introduction to the course
• 2. Basics of Foresight and Strategic Planning
• 3. Objectives and Processes of Foresight and Strategic Planning
• 4. Methodology for Foresight and Strategic Planning
• 5. Scenarios technique
• 6. Translating Foresight into strategy
• 7. Embedding Foresight and Strategic Planning into organisations

Assessment Elements

• Final control
• Presentation
• Seminar Activity

Interim Assessment

• 2024/2025 3rd module
  0.4 * Final control + 0.3 * Presentation + 0.3 * Seminar Activity

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

• 9783319325743 - Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan; Sokolov, Alexander - Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation - 2016 - Springer - https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=1242395 - nlebk - 1242395
• Foresight for science, technology and innovation, Miles, I., 2016
• Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight : The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. New York: Routledge. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=234423
• Simerson, B. K. (2011). Strategic Planning: A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution : A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution. Santa Barbara, Calif: Praeger. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=362938
• Sørgaard Jørgensen, Dingli, S. M., & Borch, K. (2013). Participation and Interaction in Foresight : Dialogue, Dissemination and Visions. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=495658

Recommended Additional Bibliography

• Daim, T. U., Chiavetta, D., Porter, A. L., & Saritas, O. (2016). Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis. Switzerland: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=1231713
• Meissner, D., Gokhberg, L. M., & Sokolov, A. (2013). Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future : Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies. Berlin: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=586015
• Ringland, G. (2006). Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future (Vol. 2nd ed). Chichester, England: Wiley. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=492786
• Saritas, O., & Nugroho, Y. (2012). Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, (3), 509. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.a.eee.tefoso.v79y2012i3p509.529

Authors

• Зинченко Екатерина Андреевна
• CHULOK ALEKSANDR ALEKSANDROVICH