Applied Foresight

2024/2025

Учебный год

ENG

Обучение ведется на английском языке

3

Кредиты

Кто читает:

Департамент образовательных программ

Статус:

Курс по выбору

Когда читается:

1-й курс, 4 модуль

Преподаватели

Саритас Оздчан

Соколов Александр Васильевич

Course Syllabus

Abstract

A number of international organizations, national and regional governments as well as leading corporations have used Foresight to monitor trends, uncertainties, weak signals and wild cards; explore alternative futures under complexity and uncertainty; build future visions; identify key scientific and technological areas; develop new products and services; and recommend policies and strategies. Through seminars, students will be provided with practical experience in designing Foresight and Strategic Planning processes for public and private organizations. Applications and cases of Foresight will be presented with examples from different levels of governance with international, national, regional as well as industrial, sectoral and corporate focus. Overall, the students will understand how Foresight approaches, processes and methods are integrated into policy making and strategy development processes, and will gain capabilities to apply these in their professional practice.

Learning Objectives

• To provide an overview of Foresight and Strategic Planning.
• To introduce several key approaches used both in Foresight and Strategic Planning in a complementary stance, including methods for scanning environments, identifying trends and drivers of change with weak signals and wild cards, developing future scenarios and visions and making long, medium and short term strategic plans for identifying priorities and actions.
• To provide an overview of innovative ways of decision-making and STI policy formulation; STI strategy- and priority-setting; and cooperation and networking with stakeholders will be introduced.
• To provide a practical experience in designing Foresight and Strategic Planning processes for public and private organizations.

Expected Learning Outcomes

• Ability to build necessary theory, argumentation and practice of using Foresight and Strategic planning at the national, regional and corporate levels
• Ability to use quantitative and qualitative approaches, processes and methods in a practical case study

Course Contents

• 1. Introduction to the course
• 2. Background, rationales, and key concepts for Foresight
• 3. Initiating Foresight: Objectives and Processes of Foresight
• 4. Foresight Methodology: Quantitative and Qualitative methods for Foresight
• 5. Scanning: Gathering Intelligence for emerging trends, technologies and markets
• 6. Scenarios and Alternative Futures: Planning alternative futures and scenarios
• 7. Formulating visions and priorities: Priority setting and strategy development
• 8. Generating outputs and outcomes from Foresight
• 9. Linking Foresight and Strategic Planning to Policies and Actions

Assessment Elements

• Presentation
• Final exam
• Home Assignment

Interim Assessment

• 2024/2025 4th module
  0.4 * Final exam + 0.3 * Home Assignment + 0.3 * Presentation

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

• 9783319325743 - Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan; Sokolov, Alexander - Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation - 2016 - Springer - https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=1242395 - nlebk - 1242395
• Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight : The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. New York: Routledge. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=234423
• Ringland, G. (2006). Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future (Vol. 2nd ed). Chichester, England: Wiley. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=492786
• Simerson, B. K. (2011). Strategic Planning: A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution : A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution. Santa Barbara, Calif: Praeger. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=362938
• Sørgaard Jørgensen, Dingli, S. M., & Borch, K. (2013). Participation and Interaction in Foresight : Dialogue, Dissemination and Visions. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=495658

Recommended Additional Bibliography

• Daim, T. U., Chiavetta, D., Porter, A. L., & Saritas, O. (2016). Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis. Switzerland: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=1231713
• Meissner, D., Gokhberg, L. M., & Sokolov, A. (2013). Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future : Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies. Berlin: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=586015
• Saritas, O., & Nugroho, Y. (2012). Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, (3), 509. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.a.eee.tefoso.v79y2012i3p509.529

Authors

• SOKOLOV ALEKSANDR VASILEVICH
• SARITAS Ozdchan
• PIKALOVA ANNA GENNADIEVNA
• CHULOK ALEKSANDR ALEKSANDROVICH