От эпидемий до финансовых кризисов: анализ взаимодействия туризма и гостиничного размещения на рынке жилья Гонконга

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between tourism activities, housing prices, and hotel room rates in Hong Kong from January 2000 to December 2023. Due to the pandemic, financial crises, and policy changes causing numerous structural breaks, this study utilizes Fourier approximation to do stationarity tests, cointegration tests, and causality analysis to address the presence of smooth structural breaks and examine the long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables. These methods account do not require prior knowledge of the number or form of these breaks. Empirical results reveal that increased tourist arrivals significantly impact housing prices in Hong Kong. The Fourier KPSS stationarity test confirms that all variables become stationary after their first differences, while the Fourier cointegration test supports a robust long-term relationship among the variables. Dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimations highlight a significant positive effect of tourism, as measured by visitor arrivals, on housing prices. Additionally, the Fourier Granger and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality tests indicate a moderate causal linkage from tourist arrivals to housing prices. Furthermore, the study finds that hotel occupancy rates and property rental indices significantly affect hotel room prices, with higher occupancy rates leading to lower room rates and rising property rentals driving up hotel prices. This research bridges significant gaps in the existing literature by directly linking tourism activities with residential property prices and hotel room rates in Hong Kong, utilizing robust methodologies to account for structural breaks. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and urban planners to manage the complexities of global tourism trends and economic fluctuations, particularly considering disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic.